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Pro dan Kontra atas kenaikan harga BBM HANYA melihat dari alasan-alasan sederhana BUKAN dalam konteks SISTEM perekonomian secara makro. Jika HANYA melihat hitam-putih dari menaikkan harga BBM akan mengurangi subsidi BBM, Kemudian hasil dari pengurangan subsidi BBM HANYA dibagikan kepada masyarakat MISKIN serta alokasi anggaran itu untuk kegiatan-kegiatan RUTIN saja, maka pengalaman empirik dari kegagalan mantan Presiden SBY akan terulang lagi.
Pada tahun 2008-2009 mantan Presiden SBY telah melakukan hal yang sama yaitu menaikkan harga BBM dan memang anggaran untuk subsidi BBM telah berkurang secara SIGNIFIKAN dari Rp. 139.11 Trilyun (2008) menjadi sekitar Rp. 45.04 Trilyun (2009). Tetapi apa yang terjadi selanjutnya pada tahun-tahun 2010-2014 ini? Ternyata pengurangan angka subsidi hanya berlangsung satu tahun saja. Selanjutnya anggaran subsidi meningkat terus-menerus seperti tampak dalam bagan terlampir. Jika demikian, maka alasan pihak yang KONTRA menaikkan harga BBM untuk mengurangi SUBSIDI BBM menjadi LOGIS dan DAPAT DITERIMA.
Namun jika mekanisme menaikkan harga BBM HANYA sebagai “pintu masuk (entry point)” untuk pembenahan SISTEM Perekonomian Makro Indonesia secara TOTAL, maka semua pihak akan menerima konsekuensi dari kenaikan harga BBM itu.
Seperti diberitakan bahwa berdasarkan harga minyak dunia sekarang ini yang lagi menurun, maka sesungguhnya harga keekonomian PREMIUM adalah sekitar Rp. 8.700-an per liter, maka usulan para pihak yang menyebutkan bahwa kenaikan harga premium CUKUP Rp. 2000/liter telah LOGIS karena telah mendekati harga keekonomian (harga pasar) dari premium itu yaitu sekitar Rp. 8.500/liter, sehingga subsidi per liter PREMIUM HANYA sekitar Rp. 200-an. TETAPI hal ini juga HANYA merupakan SOLUSI jangka pendek.
Solusi yang saya ajukan adalah demikian.
- Menaikkan harga PREMIUM (apakah akan menaikkan Rp. 2000/liter atau Rp. 3000/liter). Jika harga premium bersubsidi naik sekitar Rp. 2000/liter, maka akan ada tambahan dana sekitar 29,29 juta kilo liter x Rp. 2000/liter = Rp. 58,6 Trilyun per tahun. Atau jika harga premium bersubsidi dinaikkan sebesar Rp.3000/liter maka akan ada tambahan dana sekitar 29,29 juta kilo liter x Rp. 3000/liter = Rp. 87.9 Trilyun per tahun.
- Gunakan anggaran yang ada HANYA 10-15% untuk membantu rakyat MISKIN apakah berbentuk kartu atau bantuan langsung. Sisa 35-40% HARUS dialokasikan untuk membangun INFRASTRUKTUR GAS sehingga kita akan MAMPU mengalihkan penggunaan BBM yang semakin mahal dan tidak ramah lingkungan itu menjadi menggunakan BBG yang produksinya sangat berlimpah di bumi Indonesia.
- Sisa lagi 50% digunakan untuk membangun sistem jaminan sosial bagi seluruh rakyat Indonesia, membangun infrastruktur (jalan, waduk-waduk bagi petani, sarana dan prasarana untuk nelayan, UKM, dll), membangun pusat-pusat pelatihan tenaga kerja untuk meningkatkan produktivitas tenaga kerja agar memperkuat perekonomian dari sisi produksi (bukan hanya dari sisi pengeluaran seperti selama ini dilakukan). Konsekuensi nilai tambah industri akan meningkat, daya saing ekspor juga meningkat, secara otomatis akan meningkatkan upah & gaji bagi karyawan/pekerja industri, BUKAN seperti sekarang ini di mana setiap tahun terjadi konflik antara pekerja dan pengusaha karena penetapan UMP (Upah Minimum Provinsi) yang rendah itu.
- Pendekatan No. 1 – 3 di atas adalah mengkombinasikan antara pendekatan PASAR dan pendekatan Sosial, dan hal itu yang sekarang berkembang dalam dunia kewirausahaan sebagai Kewirausahaan Sosial (Social Entrepreneurship).
Dengan demikian jalan keluar BUKAN sekedar Pro atau Kontra Menaikkan Harga BBM saja, TETAPI apa langkah selanjutnya setelah itu? Jika penyakit bersumber dari SISTEM PEREKONOMIAN yang SALAH, maka jalan keluar pun HARUS berdasarkan pendekatan SISTEM, BUKAN sekedar pendekatan parsial pada elemen tertentu saja dalam sistem itu.
Salam SUCCESS.
Is Increasing Fuel Oil Price A Way Out for Indonesia’s Current Economic Problem?
The pros and cons of fuel oil price increase ONLY look at it from simple reasons, NOT from the macroeconomic context. If we ONLY look the black-and-white of increasing fuel oil price is to reduce fuel oil subsidy, then the result of that subsidy reduction would ONLY be shared to the poor with the subsequent budget allocation for just ROUTINE activities, then the empirical experience from the failure of former President SBY would repeat itself.
In 2008-2009, former President SBY had done the same thing, which was to increase fuel oil price and the budget for fuel oil subsidy indeed was reduced SIGNIFICANTLY from Rp 139.11 Trillions (2008) to Rp 45.04 Trillions (2009). But what happened next in these years of 2010-2014? Actually, the subsidy reduction was only implemented for one year. Furthermore, the subsidy budget continuously increased as seen in the attached picture. If so, the reasons of those who are in the CON side to increase fuel price in order to reduce fuel oil SUBSIDY would be LOGICAL and ACCEPTABLE.
But, if the mechanism of increasing fuel oil price would be used as an “entry point” to TOTALLY fix Indonesia’s Macroeconomic SYSTEM, then all parties would receive the consequence of that fuel oil price increase.
As reported based on the world oil price that is decreasing, then actually the PREMIUM (fuel oil) economic price would be around Rp 8,700-ish per liter, then the proposal of those that states the SUFFICIENT premium fuel price increase to be Rp 2,000/liter has been LOGICAL because it has approached the economic (market) price of that premium, which is about Rp 8,500/liter; thus, PREMIUM subsidy per liter would ONLY be around Rp 200-ish. BUT, this too is ONLY a short-term SOULTION.
The solution I’m proposing is as follows:
- Increase PREMIUM fuel oil price (whether increase it to Rp 2,000/liter or Rp 3,000/liter). If the subsidized premium fuel oil price is increased to about Rp 2,000/liter, then there would be additional revenues of about 29.29 millions kilo liter x Rp 2,000/liter = Rp 58.6 Trillions per year. Or if the subsidized premium fuel oil price is increased to about Rp 3,000/liter, then there would be additional revenues of about 29.29 millions kilo liter x Rp 3,000/liter = Rp 87.9 Trillions per year.
- Use ONLY 10-15% of the existing national budget in order to help the POOR whether through subsidy cards or direct help. 35-40% of the national budget MUST be allocated to build GAS INFRASTRUCTURE so that we would be ABLE to switch from the use of ever increasing and environmentally-unfriendly fuel oil price into the use of gas fuel that has very abundant production in Indonesian land.
- The rest 50% can be used to build social security system for all Indonesians, to build infrastructure (roads, reservoirs for farmers, facilities and infrastructure for fishermen, small-medium enterprises, etc.), to build training centers to increase labor productivity in order to strengthen the economy from the production side (not only from the output side like what has been done all this time). Consequently, the value added industries would increase, export competitiveness would also increase; in turn, this would increase wages and salaries for industrial workers/employees, UNLIKE today, where every year there are conflicts between workers and employers due to the establishment of low provincial minimum wage.
- No. 1 – 3 approaches above are combining the MARKET and Social approaches, and that is currently developing in the Entrepreneurship world as Social Entrepreneurship.
Therefore, the exit is NOT just about Pros or Cons of increasing fuel oil price, BUT what would be the next step(s) after that? If the disease comes from the INCORRECT ECONOMIC SYSTEM, then the exit too MUST be based on SYSTEMIC approach, NOT just a partial approach for some particular elements within that system.
Best Regards for SUCCESS.
